Inferential Adjustment in International Relations (2010-2023)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5380/cg.v14i2.98969Keywords:
Inferential Pluralism, Case Studies, International Relations, Political Methodology, Research Design.Abstract
This article seeks to understand the effect of Inferential Adjustment on the high-impact factor production of International Relations over the past decade. IR represents a case where inferential strategies guided by reverse causation become dominant. The fundamental reason for such a condition can largely be explained by the primacy of institutional theories, a fact that leads to a clear movement towards the revitalization of the inferential status of case studies, which goes against the dominant behavioral trend as seen in contemporary political science. The central argument is that IR production should be seen as a Separate Inferential Table that preserves important specificities in relation to Political Science.
References
AI, C.; NORTON, E. C. Interaction Terms in Logit and Probit Models. Economics Letters, vol. 80, n. 1, p. 123-129, 2003.
ALMOND, G. Separate Tables: Schools and Sects in Political Science. PS: Political Science and Politics, vol. 21, n. 4, p. 828–842, 1988.
ANGRIST, J. D.; PISCHKE, J.-S. Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist Companion. New Jersey: Princeton University Press, 2009.
ASHWORTH, S.; BERRY, C. R.; MESQUITA, E. B. Theory and Credibility: Integrating Theoretical and Empirical Social Science. New Jersey: Princeton University Press, 2021.
BEACH, D.; PEDERSEN, R. B. Process-Tracing Methods: Foundations and Guidelines. [s.l.] Ann Arbor. The University of Michigan Press, 2013.
BECK, N. Taking Time Seriously: Time-Series-Cross-Section Analysis with a Binary Dependent Variable. American Journal of Political Science, vol. 42, n. 4, p. 1260-1288, 1998.
BECK, N.; KATZ, J. N. What to Do (And Not to Do) with Time-Series Cross-Section Data. American Political Science Review, vol. 89, n. 3, p. 634-647, 1995.
BOX-STEFFENSMEIER, J. M.; BRADY, H. E.; COLLIER, D. Political Science Methodology”. Em: BOX-STEFFENSMEIER, J. M.; BRADY, H. E.; COLLIER, D. (Eds.). The Oxford Handbook of Political Methodology. Chapter 1. p. 3–31, 2008
BOX-STEFFENSMEIER, J. M.; JONES, B. S. Event History Modeling: A Guide for Social Scientists. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2004.
BRADY, H. E.; COLLIER, D. Rethinking Social Inquiry: Diverse Tools, Shared Standards. New York: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, Inc, 2004.
BRAMBOR, T.; CLARK, W. R.; GOLDER, M. Understanding Interaction Models: Improving Empirical Analyses. Political Analysis, vol. 14, n. 1, p. 63-82, 2006.
CARTER, D. B.; SIGNORINO, C. S. Back to The Future: Modeling Time Dependence in Binary Data. Political Analysis, vol. 18, n. 3, p. 271-292, 2010.
CLARKE, K. A.; PRIMO, D. M. A Model Discipline: Political Science and the Logic of Representations. New York: Oxford University Press, 2012.
COPPEDGE, M. Democratization and Research Methods. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2012.
DE BOEF, S.; KEELE, L. Taking Time Seriously. American Journal of Political Science, vol. 52, n. 1, p. 184-200, 2008.
DE PAULA, J. C. G. Em busca da Inferência Válida: métodos e testes de hipóteses nos estudos legislativos brasileiros. Métodos e Metodologias, s/v, n. 26, p. 273-311 2018.
DRUCKMAN, J. N. et al. The Growth and Development of Experimental Research in Political Science. American Political Science Review, vol. 100, n. 4, p. 627–635, 2006.
DUNNING, T. Improving Causal Inference: Strenghts and Limitations of Natural Experiments. Political Research Quarterly, vol. 61, n. 2, p. 282–293, 2008.
GEORGE, A. L.; BENNETT, A. Case Study and Theory Development in the Social Sciences. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2005.
GERBER, A.; P.GREEN, D.; KAPLAN, E. H. The Illusion of Learning from Observational Research”. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2004.
GERRING, J. What is a Case Study and What it is good for? American Political Science Review, vol. 98, n. 2, p. 341–354, 2004.
GERRING, J. Case Study Research: Principles and Practices. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2007.
GREENACRE, M. Correspondence Analysis in Practice. Chapman and Hall/CRC, 2007
GREENE, W. H. Econometric Analysis. Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice Hall, 2000.
GRIMMER, J.; STEWART, B. M. Text as Data: The Promise and Pitfalls of Automatic Content Analysis Methods for Political Texts. Political Analysis, vol. 21, n. 3, p. 267–297, 2013.
HO, D. E. et al. Matching as Nonparametric Preprocessing for Reducing Model Dependence in Parametric Causal Inference. Political Analysis, vol. 15, n. 3, p. 199-236, 2007.
IACUS, S. M.; KING, G.; PORRO, G. Causal Inference Without Balance Checking: Coarsened Exact Matching. American Journal of Political Science, vol. 20, n. 1, p. 1-24, 2012.
IMAI, L., Kosuke, Keele; TINGLEY, D. Unpacking The Black Box Of Causality: Learning about Causal Mechanisms From Experimental and Observational Studies. American Political Science Review, vol. 105, n. 4, p. 765-789, 2011.
KEELE, L. The Statistics of Causal Inference: a View from Political Methodology. Political Analysis, vol. 23, n. 3, p. 313–335, 2015.
KING, A., Gary, Honaker, James, Joseph; SCHEVE, K. Analyzing Incomplete Political Science Data: an Alternative Algorithm for Multiple Imputation. American Political Science Review, vol. 95, n. 1, p. 49–69, 2001.
KING, G. Unifying Political Methodology: The Likelihood Theory of Statistical Inference. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1989.
KING, G.; EPSTEIN, L. The Rules of Inference. University of Chicago Law Review, vol. XXX, n. 1, p. 1–93, 2002.
KING, G.; KEOHANE, R.; VERBA, S. Designing Social Inquiry: Scientific Inference in Qualitative Research. New Jersey: Princeton University Press, 1994.
KING, G.; ZENG, L. Logistic Regression in Rare Events Data. American Journal of Political Science, vol. 9, n. 2, p. 137–163, 2001.
LEYDESDORFF, L.; WAGNER, C. S.; BORNMANN, L. Interdisciplinarity as diversity in citation pattern among journals: Rao-Stirling diversity, relative variety, and the Gini Coefficient. Journal of Informetrics, vol. 13, p. 255–269, 2019.
LIEBERMAN, E. S. Causal Inference in Historical Institutional Analysis: A Specification of Periodization Strategies. Comparative Political Studies, vol. 34, n.9, 1011-1035, 2001.
LIEBERMAN, E. S. Nested Analysis as a Mixed-Method Strategy for Comparative Research. American Political Science Review, vol. 99, n. 3, p. 435–452, 2005.
LONG, J. S. Regression Models for Categorical and Limited Dependent Variables. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications, 1997.
LONG, J. S.; FREESE, J. Regression Models for Categorical Dependent Variables Using Stata. College Station, TX: Stata Press, 2006.
LOTKA, A. J. Elements of Physical Biology. Baltimore: Williams & Wilkins, 1926.
MAHONEY, J.; GOERTZ, G. A Tale of Two Cultures: Contrasting Quantitative and Qualitative Research in the Social Sciences. New Haven. [s.l.] Princeton University Press, 2012.
MAHONEY, J.; TERRIE, L. Comparative-Historical Analysis in Contemporary Political Science. Em: The Oxford Handbook of Political Methodology. [s.l.] Oxford University Press, 2008. p. 737–755.
MCDERMOTT, R. Experimental Methodology in Political Science. Political Analysis, vol. 10, n. 4, p. 325–342, 2002.
MORTON, R. B. Methods and Models: A Guide to the Empirical Analysis of Formal Models in Political Science. New York: Cambridge University Press, 1999.
MORTON, R. B.; WILLIAMS, K. C. The Advent of Experimental Political Science”. In Experimental Political Science and the Study of Causality: From Nature to Lab. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2010.
PEPINSKY, T. B. The Return of the Single-Country Study. Annual Review of Political Science, vol. 22, p. 187–203, 2009.
PRZEWORSKI, A. Is The Science of Comparative Politics Possible?”. Em: BOIX, C.; STOKES, S. (Eds.). Oxford Handbook of Comparative Politics. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2007. p. 147–171.
RAGIN, C. C. The Comparative Method: Moving Beyond Qualitative and Quantitative Strategies. Berkeley: University of California Press, 1989.
RAGIN, C. C. Fuzzy-Set Social Science. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2000.
REZENDE, F. DA C. Desenhos de Pesquisa e Qualidade Inferencial na CP: o Modelo de Engrenagens Analíticas. Conexão Política, vol. 4, n. 2, p. 47–66, 2015a.
REZENDE, F. DA C. Transformações Metodológicas na CP. Revista Política Hoje, vol. 24, p. 13–45, 2015b.
REZENDE, F. DA C. R. O Pluralismo Inferencial na CP: Teoria e Evidências. Curitiba: Editora Appris, 2023.
REZENDE, F. DA C.; RIOS, C. G. B. Revitalizing the Inferential Status of Case Stories in Comparative Politics: Latin America in the Era of Causal Identification, 2000-2021. Revista Latinoamericana de Política Comparada, vol. 16, 2023.
SCHAEFERMEIER, B.; STUMME, G.; HANIKA, T. Topic Space Trajectories: A Case Study on Machine Learning Literature. Scientometrics, vol. 15, n. 3, p. 123–145, 2021.
SCHNEIDER, C. Q.; WAGEMAN, C. Set-Theoretical Methods for the Social Sciences: A Guide to Qualitative Comparative Analysis. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2012.
SPRINZ, D. F.; WOLINSKY-NAHMIAS, Y. (EDS.). Models, Cases and Numbers: methods for studying international relations. [s.l.] Ann Arbor. The University of Michigan Press, 2004.
STOKES, S. A Defense of Observational Research”. Em: TEELE, D. L. (Ed.). Field Experiments and its Critics: essays on the use and abuse of experimentation in the Social Sciences. The Yale ISPS Series. New Haven. [s.l.] Yale University Press, 2014, p. 33–57.
WOOLDRIDGE, J. M. Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2002.
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Conjuntura Global (ISSN 2317 - 6563) editors reserve the right to adapt the submissions to the journal's editorial standard format. The articles and reviews are under the responsibility of their authors and do not express the opinion of Conjuntura Global's editors.
Authors who publish in this journal agree with the following terms:
- Authors retain copyright and grant the journal the right of first publication, with the work simultaneously licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY 4.0), that allows the work to be shared with recognition of authorship and initial publication in this journal;
- Authors are allowed to assume additional contracts separately, for the non-exclusive distribution of the version of the work published in this journal (e.g., to publish in an institutional repository or as a book chapter), with recognition of authorship and initial publication in this journal;
- The approval of the submission automatically implies the authorization to Conjuntura Global to forward the relevant information to the scientific journals' indexing databases.
