SIMULATION OF URBAN GROWTH: A CASE STUDY FOR CURITIBA CITY, BRAZIL

Abstract

The present work seeks to model the simulation of the landscape of the city of Curitiba, through the use of cellular automata (CA) algorithms, together with the Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and Remote Sensing tools. Four models were elaborated, having as input data classified images from the years 2006, 2009, 2011 and 2014; and different time intervals between the initial and final landscape of the models. Geographic data of the city were also used, as well as the current legislation of the municipality, and such data contributed to the robustness of the modelling. Two validation tests were applied to verify the adequacy of the simulated models concerning the observed reality. The validation performed by the Multiple Resolutions Adjustment method indicated that the model elaborated with data from 2009 and 2011 reached the highest similarity index, being equal to 0.88. Thus, it was possible to carry out geosimulations and these indicated that, as long as the trends observed in the past are maintained, the urban expansion of the municipality will occur at the expense of vegetation.